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« on: 13 May 2019, 06:24 »

Baseball Prospectus has introduced DRC+ http://www.indiansfanproshop.com/authentic-b.j.-upton-jersey , a statistic that says the 2018 Tigers were as bad as you thought."Here at Bless You Boys, we have always championed the use of statistics to better understand the game of baseball. Advanced metrics, in particular, have taught us to think about the game differently. They help us discuss the game more intelligently, and back up our arguments and assertions with facts. While they aren’t perfect, they tend to enrich our conversations about this game that we all love.On Monday, the fine folks at Baseball Prospectus unveiled Deserved Runs Created Plus, or DRC+, a statistic designed to measure a player’s offensive output relative to league average, and adjusted to correct for a boatload of factors. Like our old friends OPS+ and wRC+, it is scaled so that 100 is average, and any points above or below that indicate the percentage of how much better (or worse) a player is relative to average.We’ll get into the nitty-gritty in a bit, but here’s what you need to know: the Detroit Tigers are still bad.Nicholas Castellanos was the only Detroit hitter to rank among the top 100 players in all of MLB in DRC+ in 2018, with a 116 DRC+ Josh Tomlin Jersey , nowhere near as good as his 130 wRC+. The next-best Tiger was Christin Stewart, who only played in Detroit for a month at the end of the season. In fact, the next Tigers hitter to spend the full season with the team was Victor Martinez, way down at 262nd in baseball with a 95 DRC+.Where are Jeimer Candelario and Niko Goodrum, you may ask? They are further down the list; both finished with a 91 DRC+, numbers much worse than their respective wRC+ figures. Other Tigers that finished down the list include:Jose Iglesias: 89 DRC+John Hicks: 86 DRC+Mikie Mahtook: 85 DRC+Ronny Rodriguez: 76 DRC+James McCann: 74 DRC+Dixon Machado: 73 DRC+(You can see the entire list of sadness here)How is DRC+ calculated?We don’t know yet. While it seems like this particular stat hates the Tigers, the reality is that DRC+ doesn’t seem to be too closely correlated with wRC+ and OPS+, which will only differ by a point or two for a given player. The reason for that? DRC+ is calculated differently, and has different weights for various outcomes in a given plate appearance.We’re still not sure exactly why there are such big discrepancies, such as Castellanos’ 14-point difference in DRC+ and wRC+, but creator Jonathan Judge indicated that “extreme performances” in certain areas (especially strikeout and walk rates) are weighted differently. Also, as the above quote says, DRC+ is scaled for quality of competition and weighed by single-year park factors.What does this all mean?We’re not sure yet. Baseball Prospectus is proudly claiming that DRC+ is the most accurate measure of offensive performance out there, and it probably is. It may or may not overtake OPS+ and wRC+ as the most widely-cited offensive statistic Carlos Carrasco Jersey , and it will take some time before the general public gets a better grasp of its strengths and, probably more importantly, its flaws. Whether we use it here or not depends largely on personal preference — many of our writers lean toward FanGraphs’ stats, though we try to mix it up whenever possible — but will, as always, be provided with the appropriate context.In the meantime, we’ll stare at that above tweet for a while and go back to wishing the Tigers would actually sign someone. Upon the signing of Robinson Chirinos, most saw an aging backstop with a decent amount of pop in his bat that was notoriously bad on defense. But this year, and obviously we’re talking a very small..."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Houston Astros NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsWere we duped about Chirinos’ defense?New,29commentsCDTShareTweetShareShareWere we duped about Chirinos’ defense?Troy Taormina-USA TODAY SportsUpon the signing of Robinson Chirinos, most saw an aging backstop with a decent amount of pop in his bat that was notoriously bad on defense. But this year, and obviously we’re talking a very small sample size, he has been actually very good.Here were some of the exerts on Chirinos’ defense from his signing:MLBTradeRumors from his signing:“That said, Chirinos doesn’t come with a strong defensive reputation. He’s thrown out 25 percent of opposing base thieves in his career but saw that mark fall to just 10 percent last season Cliff Pennington Jersey , and while he grades out well in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt, Baseball Prospectus has routinely graded him as a below-average framer — never more so than in 2018.”Jerome Miron-USA TODAY SportsCBSSports:That’s why it’s a little surprising to see the Astros link up with Chirinos, arguably one of the worst defensive backstops in baseball. According to Baseball Prospectus, Chirinos’ mitt cost the Texas Rangers 11 runs in 2018. For his career, he’s sacrificed more than 20 runs. Most of that damage comes via poor framing, as he’s consistently been below-average in that regard. He doesn’t make up for it with good pop times or strong goalie-work, either.Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports Then you guys may have heard that AJ Hinch spent time to personally instruct Chirinos, particularly defensively. (Link needed) There are stories like this all the time, and 99.9% of the “best shape of my life” stories turn into nothing. And Houston Chronicle also noted that he got some advice from Brent Strom (is there anyone he can’t work magic on) and bullpen catcher Michael Collins on a way to change/shorten his throwing motion.Chirinos showed up in Spring Training and threw out 3 in 7 attempts runners in Spring Training. Easy enough to discount, as Spring Training has all sorts of wackiness that occurs.But then Spring Training ended and something magical happened, his defensive has continued. He currently ranks positively in Fangraphs overall defensive stat for only the second time ever in his career. He already has caught 2 potential base stealers, and made a very heads up play the other day to grab a swinging bunt and throw to second, then point out the runner had not moved to get the double play. So I started looking a little deeper. Statcast records the pop-times and he has tied or beat his all-time best. Even with that said, he comes in ranking at #50 in pop time Joey Votto Jersey , #38 in Arm, and #57 in Exchange. For comparison, he ranks better in arm, tied in exchange, and ahead of McCann in pop times. Truthfully, the biggest knock against Chirinos has always been his framing. I was concerned to do too much research on his framing as I started to think that he may be a primary contributor to some of the terrible calls we have received from umpires recently. But the magic continued:Fangraphs has him rated at 0.4 in Framing so far (-15.6 last year). A ranking that ties him for 7th best with Francisco Cervelli and one spot ahead of Yasmani Grandal. (JT Realmuto is the best at 0.9, Gary Sanchez is the worst at -1.6)Baseball Prospectus echo’d those sentiments, with him coming in positive 0.1 in Framing Runs (good for 17th overall of 65), and 0.1 in FRAA_Adj, better than our defensive specialist Martin Maldonado from last year. Troy Taormina-USA TODAY SportsConclusionSo it’s tough to make any meaningful conclusions with such a short sample size. My conclusion is that he’s surprised me. He seems to have acclimated well to the Astros, and has made notable progress by all metrics that I can see. It’s great to see defensive progress that matches my eye test. I’m excited to have Chirinos on the team and think he may surprise some people this year!
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